Week 32: Cocoa Market Summary
Cocoa markets reel as West African producers battle poor weather, price drops, and cross-border smuggling
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Ivory Coast:
The Ivory Coast is contending with challenges that affect the quality and volume of its cocoa production. Despite a 6% increase in exports reaching 1.76 million metric tons this year, adverse weather such as low rainfall and high temperatures is jeopardizing the main crop due in October. Additionally, quality concerns have led to a 5% to 6% rejection rate in the mid-crop cocoa. Concerns about unusual cold spells and insufficient rainfall further raise alarms about the potential of the upcoming main harvest.
Ghana:
As the world's second-largest cocoa producer, Ghana anticipates an 8.3% rise in cocoa production for the 2025/26 season, reaching 650,000 metric tons. This production increase might suppress global cocoa prices. A recent rise in cocoa producer prices aims to enhance the welfare of local farmers and stimulate the national economy, potentially boosting the tourism sector and improving local infrastructure and services.
Nigeria:
Currently ranked as the fifth largest cocoa producer globally, Nigeria is facing an 11% decline in production, expecting to produce 305,000 metric tons in the 2025/26 season. This downturn is part of the broader trend affecting global cocoa prices.
Global Influence and Demand:
The global cocoa market is witnessing notable shifts, with a decrease in demand leading to a slump in prices. European and Asian cocoa grindings have fallen sharply, with year-on-year declines of 7.2% in Europe and 16.3% in Asia. The International Cocoa Organization has updated its forecast, expecting a global cocoa deficit potential increase in the coming seasons.
Cocoa Smuggling in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana:
Both nations struggle with significant cocoa smuggling, exacerbated by high global prices and discrepancies in local pricing. This illegal trade inflicts considerable economic losses and highlights issues with enforcement and corruption, impacting public finances and stability.
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