Coffee : Brazil’s Harvest Pressure and Global Supply Outlook
Market is ignoring the current weather issues.
Global coffee prices continued to face downward pressure this week as harvest momentum builds in Brazil and inventories climb.
Despite recent weather concerns in key arabica-growing regions, the broader outlook remains shaped by expectations of robust supply in both arabica and Robusta markets.
You can access the latest weather, mapped to coffee fields on CropGPT
Market Snapshot
July Arabica (KCN25): ▼ -0.58%
July Robusta (RMN25): ▼ -0.60%
Arabica hit a 1¾-month low, while Robusta fell to a 7-month low, reflecting supply-side pressure from harvest activity and inventory increases.
Brazil’s 2025/26 Harvest Progress
According to Safras & Mercado, 20% of Brazil’s coffee crop had been harvested by May 28, just under the 5-year average of 21%. This reflects steady progress and has contributed to the recent softening in prices.
Revised Production Estimates:
Safras & Mercado raised its Brazil 2025/26 production estimate to 65.51 million bags, up from 62.45 million.
CONAB, Brazil’s crop agency, similarly increased its estimate to 55.7 million bags, up from 51.81 million.
Vietnam Outlook: Production Recovery, But Exports Still Lagging
The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output to rise 6.9% year-over-year to 31 million bags. However, short-term dynamics remain tight:
Vietnam’s 2023/24 crop fell by 20% due to drought, hitting a four-year low of 1.472 million metric tons (MMT).
Exports in 2024 dropped 17.1% year-over-year to 1.35 MMT.
Jan–Apr 2025 exports are down 9.8% year-over-year to 663,000 MT.
The Vietnam Coffee & Cocoa Association cut its 2024/25 production estimate from 28 million to 26.5 million bags in March.
Inventories Climb, Weighing on Prices
Robusta inventories monitored by ICE rose to an 8.5-month high of 5,438 lots (May 30).
Arabica inventories also increased to a 4-month high of 892,468 bags (May 28).
This rise in certified stock has created further pressure on futures pricing, particularly in the absence of major short-term demand drivers.
Weather Watch: Minas Gerais Remains Dry
Despite the harvest advances, weather remains a concern for medium-term yield projections:
Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-producing region, received no rainfall during the week ending May 31. Persistent dryness during critical development phases could limit bean size and weight.
The weather continues to be a concern, with numerous warnings but the market has not responded to this yet
Honduras and Central America: Steady Recovery
The USDA forecasts Honduras' 2025/26 coffee production to rise 5.1% year-over-year to 5.8 million bags, continuing a steady recovery in Central America’s largest coffee-producing nation.
Global Supply & Stock Outlook
The USDA’s December report projected:
World coffee production (2024/25): +4.0% y/y to 174.9 million bags
Arabica: +1.5% to 97.8 million bags
Robusta: +7.5% to 77.0 million bags
Global ending stocks: forecast to fall 6.6% to 20.87 million bags—a 25-year low.
Volcafe's Arabica Warning
Volcafe revised its estimate for Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica crop down to 34.4 million bags, citing crop tour findings that revealed the ongoing impact of an extended drought. This would represent an 11-million-bag cut from its earlier forecast, contributing to a projected global arabica deficit of 8.5 million bags—the fifth consecutive year of shortfall.