Cocoa Market & Weather Report - June 6, 2025
Ivory Coast exports slow, Ghana faces input shortages, and disease risks escalate across key cocoa regions—pushing July futures higher amid growing uncertainty.
Note: The market widely believes that disease, particularly CSSV and black pod, is the primary cause of falling production. We disagree.
To access our full report on the real drivers behind the current cocoa production drop
Market Overview
Cocoa futures continued their rally this week, with July 2025 contracts closing at $10,354, up +278 (+2.76%) in early Friday trading. This sharp increase reflects multiple converging pressures:
A weaker U.S. dollar prompted short covering across soft commodities.
Slowing cocoa exports from Ivory Coast have raised concerns about tighter near-term supply.
Weather volatility and persistent disease outbreaks in West Africa are supporting bullish sentiment.
Key Cocoa Futures (as of June 6, 2025)
Contract Price (USD) Daily Change Volume Open Interest
Jul '25 (CCN25) 10,354 +278 959 31,775
Sep '25 (CCU25) 9,485 +208 2,065 29,023
Dec '25 (CCZ25) 8,784 +216 1,102 23,923
Mar '26 (CCH26) 8,161 +154 404 12,821
While cumulative cocoa shipments from Ivory Coast are still 6.7% above last year’s pace, the sharp slowdown from earlier growth (+35% YoY in December) signals tightening availability in the months ahead.
Production Outlook: West Africa
Ivory Coast
Production Forecast: In Ivory Coast, revised down to ~650K MT due to widespread disease pressure, from earlier expectations of 800K MT.
Field Observations: On-the-ground teams continue to report CSSV and black pod symptoms across more than 80% of farms, though individual tree infection rates remain lower.
Export Trends: The pace of shipments has eased significantly, tightening supply expectations for Q3 and Q4.
Ghana
Forecast Adjustment: In Ghana, after initial optimism, concerns about input shortages and erratic rainfall have led to more cautious estimates.
LBC Procurement: Buying activity has softened as uncertainty over harvest quality grows.
Weather Summary
Field-level weather data continues to highlight regional risks to yield:
Region Rainfall (May) Temperature Risk Summary % of Global Supply
Soubre, CI 40% below average +1.1°C Poor pod fill; high CSSV presence ~15%
San Pedro, CI Dry early, easing late Normal Moderate fungal and pest pressure ~18%
Ashanti, GH Erratic distribution +0.5°C Inconsistent flowering ~10%
Western, GH Uneven rainfall +0.2°C Black pod threat rising ~12%
Ivory Coast and Ghana together represent over 60% of global cocoa production.
Summary Insights
Cocoa prices remain firmly above the $10,000/t threshold for near contracts, reflecting immediate supply concerns.
Slower Ivorian export growth and a falling dollar have intensified short-covering activity.
On-the-ground reporting confirms widespread—but uneven—disease stress across West Africa.
Weather signals remain mixed, with marginally above-average temperatures and inconsistent rainfall driving uncertainty.
Despite the bullish front, forward contracts for Dec ’25–Jul ’26 remain under $9,000, reinforcing a backwardated market structure.
To access the latest cocoa reports, risks and weather -which are updated daily, please use CropGPT.